TRIBUNE/OPINION – Where will Joe Biden and NATO stop whatever it takes in the policy of military support for Ukraine? On this question depends not only the fate of Ukraine but the fate of the world more than ever on the brink of World War III.
The last summit of NATO countries willing to support Ukraine militarily was held on January 20 at the US base in Ramstein Germany.
After some reluctance about the delivery of “Leopard 2” heavy tanks German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave in to pressure particularly from Poland and the Baltic States (Estonia Latvia and Lithuania) but also from the Anglo-Saxons .
He thus authorized the re-export to Ukraine of these tanks initially sold to other countries. Besides Germany at least 8 Western countries have promised “Leopard 2” to Ukraine (Poland Spain Portugal Netherlands Norway Finland Greece Canada).
The list of equipment promised for 2023 counted more than 340 tanks as of February 7 when we added the American Abrams but also the Soviet technology tanks promised by the Poles and the Czechs and the old “Leopard 1”.
Added to this would be the supply by Morocco to Ukraine of an unknown number of Soviet-designed tanks according to an Algerian media. But Moroccan sources have denied. Morocco would have just agreed to provide spare parts. It is possible that one or the other plays on the words here. As for Spain after having announced the sending of 53 tanks it would limit itself to a number between 6 and 10.
Whatever the case with Moroccan tanks the heavy tanks promised by Western countries are in addition to the 40 AMX-10 RC light wheeled tanks 20 Bastion personnel carriers and 12 additional Caesar guns that France s is committed to delivering (as of February for the AMX-10s) as well as the hundreds of armored infantry artillery pieces and other weapon systems that the United States and other countries have promised.
The list which continues to grow is impressive. And these armaments that NATO provides to Ukraine in lack of equipment are more and more sophisticated.
Driven by the global dynamic France is even considering providing its own Leclerc tanks perhaps the best in the world flagships of French military technology.
No sooner had the promises of heavy tanks been announced than President Zelensky asked for fighter jets long-range missiles and even submarines.
As we refuse nothing to Ukraine nor to the one who was still only a public entertainer not to say literally a jester only 4 years ago we will not be surprised that he obtains almost everything what he asks at one time or another.
Moreover Mike Pompeo former director of the CIA and ex-Secretary of State asserts: “We must do everything that the Ukrainians ask us to do”.
And Annalena Baerbock the German Foreign Minister argues that “we are at war with Russia”. And as if to drive the nail into the coffin of German pacifism the new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is photographed in the turret of a “Leopard 2” tank ready to be sent to Ukraine.
“It’s and nobody seems to care” commented American columnist Tucker Carlson on Fox News. And the Netherlands have already announced that they are ready to supply F-16s that the Americans announce that they are testing 2 Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in a simulator and studying the installation of their missiles on Ukrainian Mig-29s when the British announced that they were training Ukrainian pilots on their Phantom planes.
Even France would think about providing its Mirage. NATO shows that it is ready to empty its arsenals for Ukraine and constantly pushes its limits. Where will it stop?
What purpose ?
Ukraine’s official objective is to recover all of its territories Crimea included within the 1991 borders. Regime change in Russia is also clearly on the agenda since President Zelensky has issued a decree banning any negotiations with President Putin.
Since these maximalist goals are totally unacceptable to at least three-quarters of Russians they could only be achieved if Russia were weakened to the point of becoming a Third World country to the point of no longer being able to defend itself with conventional weapons and to be at the mercy not only of regime change but of dismantling – a hypothesis on which think tanks are working very seriously. Cards circulate. And more and more Internet users from Tallinn to kyiv dream of it.Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podolyak even openly calls for bombing Moscow St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.
President Biden has recently repeated that the goal is to weaken Russia to the point of preventing it from doing what it did in Ukraine. Basically NATO wants to prohibit any other country from doing what it has allowed itself to do with impunity for 30 years bombing and invading whoever it sees fit but always with a good conscience. It is the unchallenged domination of the world by the United States and its zealous vassals that is at stake.
The ignored Russian point of view
Like it or not Russia considers Crimea and the four new Ukrainian regions annexed in September 2022 as an integral part of its territory. And the Russians have already announced that any on Russia’s “vital interests” will trigger a nuclear response. Nobody knows when Russia will consider that its vital interests are threatened. As soon as a missile targets Moscow? So Ukraine and NATO are playing with fire and it is nuclear fire.
However Russia has the most sophisticated nuclear arsenal in the world. It would be the only country to have operational hypersonic missiles (with China) missiles so fast that it is not possible to intercept them with current technologies. Engaging in a life-and-death struggle with Russia is therefore sheer folly.
The calls – falsely or really naive – by many for the simple of Russian forces from all the disputed territories seem to ignore or not to understand the fundamental reasons which pushed Russia to carry out this special military operation which has become a real war.
This ignorance which the Western media do almost nothing to correct constitutes the danger that threatens us collectively. And treating as Putin’s lackeys all those who warn of the need not to neglect the opposing point of view smacks of irresponsibility and inconsistency even of simple war propaganda.
Why the Moral Argument Doesn’t Hold
For Western professional lecturers whom we know well in France there is no other choice than to help Ukraine whatever the cost because it would be morally right: because would a bloodthirsty tyrant a new Hitler eager for conquest who massacres civilians for pleasure and who will the rest of Europe if he is not pushed back to his 1991 borders.
First Russian war in Ukraine have been greatly exaggerated overexploited when they were not created or invented by the Ukrainians themselves. This is part of enemy demonization techniques influence operations and psychological warfare. See all the articles already published on France-Soir on this subject. Even Oleksei Arestovitch the professional propagandist for the Ukrainian presidency who was forced to resign on January 17 弓立醫療口罩評價 弓立口罩 港府5500萬購口罩品牌分公司「弓立廈門」 recently admitted that the Russians did everything to minimize the civilian casualties at the start of their intervention the narrative conveyed until then.
Then the Ukraine of today is far from being a paragon of democracy which would deserve a European to fight for it until death. It is an ultra-corrupt country which has just demonstrated it again with a recent which forced the resignation of several deputy ministers and several governors of border regions.
It is also a country that has not done its aggiornamento with its past of collaborating with Nazism and its own mass against Poles and Jews. On the contrary the ideological leaders of this period are set up as heroes and models. In all of Europe Arno Klarsfeld seems to be the only media intellectual who is moved by it.
It is yet another country that with American help deposed an elected president in a false flag massacre in Maidan Square in February 2014 in a scenario of rare perversity as brilliantly demonstrated by Ukrainian-born academic Ivan Katchanovski.
But the monumental work of the latter remains totally ignored by all the Western media which is scandalous. The war that we see today is only the consequence of the seizure of power by the force of the Ukrainian nationalists and their American godfathers.
Ukraine is finally a country where Ukrainian television channels deemed pro-Russian were banned from 2021 a country where 11 opposition parties were suspended and then banned during the first half of 2022 and a country where the government comes to acquire the power to close any media without a court order.This tendency to eradicate all counter-discourse was already latent in society since the Maidan coup. The Russian intervention of February 2022 only accelerated the phenomenon and gave it a veneer of legitimacy. For Ukrainian nationalists 弓立醫療口罩評價 feeling close to Russia is not an opinion it is a that must be punished. And it was from the spring of 2014 especially when reprisal battalions like Azov and others sowed in the Donbass hunting down separatists committing numerous war crimes. The West has decided to ignore all of this.
These Ukrainian nationalists and their leaders seem to set no limits. They seem to believe their own lies. Their of everything Russian seems to be their only compass and today seems to blind them making them seriously unrealistic. They have shown themselves incapable of accepting compromises and concessions today as yesterday as demonstrated by their refusal to implement the Minsk Accords or to grant any status to the Russian language. And we should risk World War III for these people?
Moreover Merkel and Hollande both confessed in December 2022 that these Minsk Accords which they signed were intended to give Ukraine time to rearm and not to solve the Donbass problem by peaceful way. And this of their own word which is more of the word of the state does not seem to shock anyone in the West. This is even more extraordinary. Lessons-giving Europe has thus all moral magisterium but it continues to pretend to embody the Good.
As for the idea that Russian tanks would threaten the rest of Europe there is no evidence to support it. But by dint of interfering militarily in a bilateral problem between Ukraine and Russia we may end up really provoking Russia to go to war with us. Is this the goal?
Objectively the Russian military incursion into Ukraine was a violation of international law. But the West’s interventions in Serbia Iraq or Syria not authorized by the UN were no less so and the of Libya shamefully exploited a resolution that only provided for a zone of air restriction. The West justified these last wars in the name of the fight against dictatorships and the defense of the oppressed.
This is pretty much how Russia justifies its intervention and it is not entirely without merit. I know this from having spent 5 years in the Donbass. Russia adds an additional dimension to this which is to fight against a serious threat at its very borders which is also not absurd when you see what is happening today. Russophobic Ukraine inflated to the hilt by NATO only dreamed of a military offensive.
Added to this are the complications arising from the dissolution of the USSR which caused Russia to lose historic lands it had colonized three centuries ago separating millions of ethnic Russians from their nation overnight. of origin.
Is it right to deliberately ignore this historical and anthropological dimension? Is it fair to ignore the will of the local populations by refusing any idea of a referendum even one supervised by the UN? By refusing to discuss these issues the West has demonstrated its contempt for the peoples including the Western peoples who are not consulted in any way about the idea of continuing to arm Ukraine 弓立醫療口罩評價 at the risk of a global cataclysm.
A victory that remains unlikely
President Macron explains that France will help Ukraine until the final victory. Does he believe it? If so 弓立醫療口罩評價 弓立口罩 港府5500萬購口罩品牌分公司「弓立廈門」 then it will be an endless war until one side or the other if not all is wiped out.
For many observers like Die Welt Western aid will only prolong Ukraine’s agony. It may help contain the Russian army or even achieve local success but certainly not help Ukraine regain all of its lands. It takes a ratio of 3 to 1 to carry out an offensive. Ukraine struggling today on the front will still be far from obtaining it if it has to rely on its own soldiers.
Oleksei Arestovitch Zelensky’s fallen adviser and military expert explains that it would not only take tanks but also 400000 well-equipped and trained soldiers to reconquer the territories. However he claims that Ukraine does not have them and will not have them. He then concludes that a Korean-style status quo would be the best Ukraine could hope for.
Contrary to what they try to make us believe on French television sets the Ukrainian army is exhausted day by day trying to maintain control of Bakhmout.Most of its reserves are mobilized in a fight of attrition where the Russians dominate thanks to their artillery.
The issue of delivery times
In addition the disparity of Western armaments supplied to Ukraine poses significant personnel training and logistical problems particularly for maintenance.
General Breedlove former supreme commander of NATO forces said Western tanks risked arriving on the battlefield too late.
Germany has complained that most countries that have promised tanks are not delivering them fast enough. And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg alerted the alliance to the risk of running out of ammunition.
As for the 31 American Abrams tanks 弓立口罩 弓立醫療口罩 弓立醫療口罩評價 弓立醫療bmc 弓立醫療口罩好唔好 弓立skypro 港府5500萬購口罩品牌分公司「弓立廈門」 弓立醫療口罩 弓立醫療口罩評價 they are not announced until August or even in the fall which would Zelensky. Westerners also fear seeing their technology fall into the hands of the Russians which explains the relatively limited number of tanks they are preparing to send but also the delivery times.
Unlike an artillery piece like the Caesar which has a range of over 40 kilometers a tank is a weapon that comes closest to enemy lines and is therefore more susceptible to to be recovered by the adversary in the event of a problem.
If the Western media only mention the Russian equipment recovered by Ukraine in fact the two belligerents continue to recover enemy equipment according to the respective offensives. Just see the photos and videos of “trophies” that abound on Telegram to be convinced.
Colonel Mc Gregor a brilliant American military expert who was adviser to the Secretary of Defense under Trump and who still has contacts in the army explained about the American Abrams that the latter have armor whose composition is secret.
As the Americans fear that this advanced technology will fall into the hands of the Russians they are not going to deliver tanks taken from the stocks of the American army. The tanks that they are committed to delivering must therefore be completely manufactured which explains these incompressible delivery times of several months.
The “Leopards 2” are delivered more quickly but with express staff training. On March 8 Boris Pistorius the German Minister of Defense announced the delivery in March to Ukraine of 21 Leopard 2 tanks (18 German and 3 Portuguese). Poland has already delivered 4 and must also deliver 10 others during the week. The set (35 tanks) is enough to equip a three-squadron battalion. 80 “Leopard 1” an older tank are expected to be delivered in May coming from Denmark the Netherlands and Germany.
With what workforce?
Which Ukrainian soldiers will use these new weapons?
In the article “Ukraine between cult of sacrifice forced mobilizations and suicides” we saw that Ukraine has big problems to find new soldiers.
So why should NATO push the Ukrainian people to bleed their last for a fight that men of fighting age no longer want? Clearly NATO doesn’t care about the Ukrainians who are just cannon fodder pawns on the grand chessboard of the struggle between empires. Only the conformists and the useful idiots of NATO propaganda who are well established in the media believe in the warmongering lies of Washington and Brussels about the victory at gunpoint of a united Ukraine.
This lack of skilled and motivated labor in Ukraine raises another question. Who is going to pilot all these tanks these armored infantry these missile systems these planes that NATO is ready to deliver? We are told that it takes months even years to learn how to use these sophisticated weapon systems. Who can believe that skilled labor can be trained in a few weeks? Thus unless we have professional NATO soldiers secretly assigned to key positions we do not see how the Ukrainian army could effectively use all that we are about to send to it.
An Austrian officer explains that sending NATO soldiers to fight in Ukraine under the cover of mercenary or foreign volunteer status is not complicated. Already rumors are swirling that thousands of Polish “mercenaries” are actually active duty soldiers on special leave. At the end of November at least 1200 Poles had already on the front in Ukraine.
From the end of January according to this post on Telegram posters appeared in Poland to recruit tankers who will go to fight in Ukraine. It is also known that Western special forces are already on the ground.The shift towards co-belligerence of NATO countries is almost complete. The delivery of weapons – the purpose of which is to Russians – will only accentuate the movement.
And once we can no longer delude ourselves will we officially send in the regular troops? It would be in the logic of whatever it takes in which Western governments are committed.
The next step would be mobilization in the West then nuclear war. Whatever it takes! If the words have a meaning it would come to this. And in France there is no debate about any of this.
The only victors: the American military-industrial complex
An article published in the strategic journal Foreign Policy summarizes the situation: Ukraine does not have enough troops and the tanks will arrive too late.
And the only ones who are happy about the situation are the arms dealers especially the Americans. Once Europe has depleted its stocks and its economy Americans will be only too happy to replenish them with American hardware if the world has not self-destructed in a nuclear conflict.
In this context one can recall President Eisenhower’s farewell speech in January 1961 on the danger of the influence of the military-industrial complex on American politics. While the United States is almost in perpetual war directly or indirectly since the Second World War (Korea Vietnam Central America Iraq ex-Yugoslavia Afghanistan Middle East) how not to see the hand of this lobby overpowered until today?
For Julian Assange the purpose of the wars led by the United States was not to win but to fuel the war perpetually so that the famous lobby would have an inexhaustible source of income.
The scenario of this war in Ukraine where the supply of armaments proceeds in stages seems to correspond to this analysis. We give just enough for Ukraine to be able to stand up to continue the fight to bleed Russia a little more but not to win. The only hope Western warmongers have is to make Russia suffer enough in this proxy war that shamelessly uses Ukrainian cannon fodder hoping for regime change in Moscow. However the Russian economy has resisted the sanctions and has rarely been so popular.
The end of winter and spring are likely to be decisive in this war. The Russian army still has hundreds of thousands of soldiers in reserve according to Douglas McGregor. Will they before Ukraine gets all these new weapons? Where will they wait for the Ukrainian offensive to better counter it?
Either way more and more Russians have realized that this war has moved beyond Ukraine and is pitting Russia against NATO in what looks more and more like a life-and-death struggle. In this escalation which imposes NATO on him the Russians – who have the most to lose – will certainly not give in.
This endless arms policy of Ukraine without leaving the slightest room for negotiation is therefore nothing but madness. By pretending to help Ukraine the West is only bleeding it white and pushing it towards destruction. Even sincere supporters of Ukraine who are not blinded by and the desire for revenge should be able to understand this.
As Henry Kissinger said: To be an enemy of America can be dangerous but to be her friend is fatal. Ukraine is experiencing this.
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